Modeling Exit Strategies

Preprint: Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests

Authors: Reinhard German, Anatoli Djanatliev, Lisa Maile, Peter Bazan, Holger Hackstein

Link to preprint: medRxiv

Abstract: 

This paper presents two epidemiological models that have been developed in order to study thedisease dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and exit strategies from the lockdown which has beenimposed on many countries world-wide. A strategy is needed such that both the health system is notoverloaded letting people die in an uncontrolled way and also such that the majority of people can getback their social contacts as soon as possible. We investigate the potential effects of a combination ofmeasures such as continuation of hygienic constraints after leaving lockdown, isolation of infectiouspersons, repeated and adaptive short-term contact reductions and also large-scale use of antibody testsin order to know who can be assumed to be immune and participate at public life without constraints.We apply two commonly used modeling approaches: extended SEIR models formulated both asSystem Dynamics and Agent-Based Simulation, in order to get insight into the disease dynamics of acomplete country like Germany and also into more detailed behavior of smaller regions. We confirmthe findings of other models that without intervention the consequences of the pandemic can becatastrophic and we extend such findings with effective strategies to overcome the challenge. Basedon the modeling assumptions it can be expected that repeated short-term contact reductions will benecessary in the next years to avoid overload of the health system and that on the other side herdimmunity can be achieved and antibody tests are an effective way to mitigate the contact reductionsfor many.